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BALDREY: NDP has reason to be Green with envy in B.C.

A recent dust-up on social media between an NDP MLA and B.C.'s lone Green Party MLA provides a few more clues about the apparent shifting political landscape in this province.

NDP MLA Doug Routley, who routinely attacks Green Party MLA Andrew Weaver on Twitter and Facebook, let slip, via Twitter, his plan to use one of his campaign volunteers to mount a smear campaign against Weaver through that same social media tool.

He was caught, the NDP was embarrassed and everyone moved on. But the fact the NDP thinks that Weaver is such a threat to them that he deserves special treatment with a de facto black ops campaign is telling.

It says the party is worried about the threat of a party that seems to be growing - albeit in pockets of the province, and not everywhere - in force, not shrinking.

But lost in all this is the fact the BC Liberals should also be concerned about the potential rise of a third, viable party in this province.

One of the great games political observers of all stripes is to solve this mystery: where do Green voters come from? Which parties do voters abandon the most as they travel over to the Green Party?

I looked at the results of the last two provincial elections, to examine any shifts in voting patterns that occurred when the Green vote in a particular riding significantly increased or decreased from on election to the next.

I was surprised to learn that the absence of a Green Party candidate in eight ridings in 2013 (where the party had fielded one in 2009) actually saw the BC Liberals' vote actually increase. Those one-time Green voters had apparently switched to the BC Liberals - not the NDP - when voting for a Green Party candidate wasn't an option.

Take the ridings of Kamloops-North Thompson and Kamloops-South Thompson as examples. The Green Party candidates picked up almost 3,000 votes between them in 2009, but the party didn't field a candidate in either riding in 2013.

What happened? Support for the BC Liberals subsequently increased almost by 4,800 votes in 2013, while support for the NDP jumped by less than 1,000 votes, which suggests those ex-Green voters were

considerably more comfortable entering the BC Liberal tent than the NDP one.

The same scenario unfolded in several Okanagan ridings, as well as in two Surrey ridings. All but one of them could be considered B.C. Liberal strongholds.

But it was the opposite case in a bunch of other ridings, where the rise in Green voters did seem to hurt the NDP more than the BC Liberals. Most of these were on Vancouver Island.

It was particularly noticeable in a riding like Esquimalt-Royal Roads, where NDP MLA Maurine Kauragianis saw her vote slip by more than 500 votes, while the Greens increased their portion by more than 1,300.

Strangely enough, in the two neighbouring Victoria ridings, a slight surge in the Green vote meant the BC Liberals lost support, not the NDP.

What do all these seemingly conflicting scenarios tell us?

First of all, it's hard to pigeonhole the Green voter. There's obviously more at play here than the conventional wisdom that they are all mostly disaffected NDP voters.

I suspect that a significant number of Green voters are not particularly left-wing. Instead, they may be small business owners, entrepreneurs, younger people who have a strong "green" streak to their outlook on life, and those who reject established political parties and institutions like unions.

The next opportunity to examine the impact of the emerging Green vote is in the upcoming federal election in October. Again, the key is not to look at their vote from a national perspective, or even a provincial one.

Rather, the party seems to be establishing small pockets of support in various places, which could have a big impact on a handful of ridings. Take the federal riding of Victoria as an example: the Greens came very close to winning a byelection there a couple of years back, and the city recently elected a mayor with strong Green credentials.

The party is running Jo-Anne Roberts, a well known former local radio host against the NDP's incumbent MP, Murray Rankin. The two of them know each other, so I don't expect a Twitter fight to erupt between them.

Nevertheless, the NDP will be looking nervously over its shoulder there. The political landscape may indeed be shifting, in some places at least.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC. Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca