How is it that Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has been vilified by his political opponents like few politicians before him, is still the front-runner when it comes to winning the next federal election in October?
How can someone who stirs up deeply passionate and emotional negative responses on so many issues still look like the one to beat come the vote?
There are many reasons to be upset with the Harper government (and many other governments, for that matter). So how can it even stand a chance of being re-elected?
While political polling has to be taken with a very large grain of salt these days (given how wrong some of them have been in recent elections), one can't simply dismiss out of hand a series of polls that put the Conservatives firmly in the lead over the federal Liberals and NDP.
The latest Ipsos-Reid poll for Global News gives Harper's Conservatives 35 per cent of the decided vote, while Justin Trudeau's Liberals are at 31 per cent and Thomas Mulcair's NDP appears to be fading, sitting at just 24 per cent. That Conservative lead seems to be solidifying, if not increasing. How can this be?
Well, first of all, take a look at who actually votes in this country. As I've written here a number of times before, voters tend to be older and, by nature, more conservative in outlook.
Polls often over-represent the views of younger people - who don't vote in nearly the same numbers as older people - and under-represent older folks. Online polls, it seems to me, likely don't reflect the views of a great many people who may still feel uncomfortable with the internet and online communications.
In fact, if your sense of where public opinion is based on what's being said online, you are likely getting a very distorted view of things.
Go to any major media website, and check out the comments (most of them anonymous) posted after political news stories. Invariably, if they concern federal politics at all, Harper is basically referred to as the devil himself (although that is likely one of the more polite characterizations).
Increasingly, people only listen to or read things that reinforce their opinions. And so, on something like Facebook for example, people only read what their Facebook friends send their way - friends who likely view the world as they do.
Or people will only read or listen to a media outlet that has a bias that tilts their way. This is particularly a problem for those who are decidedly left-wing or right-wing - they shut out anything that clashes with their own views or ideology.
And so the people who are most vehemently anti-Harper only listen to each other, and therefore only reinforce their view that he is some sort of horrible leader who is about to be deposed. After all, everyone is saying that, so it must be true, right?
The trouble, of course, that if you only listen to your limited circle of friends, you're not getting the full picture. I see many people gleefully say they don't read or watch so-called "mainstream media" and only consume media that agrees with their viewpoint - as a result, they live in an echo chamber that leads to ignorance and uninformed commentary.
This is a relatively recent phenomenon. The rapid rise of websites, blogs and social media makes living in that echo chamber that much easier - and that much easier to underestimate a supposedly unpopular government like the Harper one.
Finally, throw in the fact we have three major political parties at the federal level, and you can see why the Conservatives will likely grow more confident as the October vote grows nearer.
The Conservative voter base, which hovers around 40 per cent of the electorate, is fairly loyal and committed. But there are a fair number of folks who are likely comfortable voting for either the federal Liberals or the NDP, meaning each of those parties can hurt each other through vote splitting (to say nothing of the Green Party adding to that confusion).
So, despite all that vitriol and fury directed Harper's way, he can cling to power with only a minority of voters backing him - a fact lost in so much of the noise on the Internet and social media, and among people who only listen to those who think just like them.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C. Keith.Baldrey@globalnews.ca