At the current rate of new infections, one in 53 Lower Mainland residents will catch the virus over the weeks to come. (Chart: Tyler Olsen)

At the current rate of new infections, one in 53 Lower Mainland residents will catch the virus over the weeks to come. (Chart: Tyler Olsen)

GRAPHIC: One in 25 Lower Mainland residents may contract COVID-19 by February if virus continues spread

Moderate increase cases would leave one in 20 Lower Mainland residents with virus by February

By mid-February, one in 53 Lower Mainland residents will be diagnosed with COVID-19 over the next 12 weeks if the current number of new case numbers hold. And if case counts continue to rise at even a fraction of their current rates, those odds will shorten dramatically, an analysis by The News shows.

(The positivity rate, which are the odds of someone who is being tested is unrelated to this analysis. These are odds are for any person residing in the Lower Mainland having a confirmed case of COVID-19.)

By mid-February, at a 10 per cent rate of increase, one in 21 Lower Mainland residents, and one in 32 British Columbians will have been diagnosed with COVID-19 since the pandemic began. If the past six months are any indication, more are likely to have acquired the virus but not know they have done so. One in 13 residents in the Fraser South region (Delta, Surrey, White Rock and Langley) will have had a confirmed case of COVID-19 if case numbers increase by 10 per cent each week.

Between Nov. 13 and 19, there were 4,500 confirmed cases of the virus in the Fraser Health and Vancouver Coastal Health regions. At that rate of new infections, 45,000 people will be diagnosed with COVID-19 by mid-February. Cases are also rising elsewhere, with every part of B.C. seeing significant increases in the number of confirmed cases.

If new case counts keep climbing – even modestly – it will become much more likely that one acquires COVID-19. The average person’s odds of being diagnosed with COVID-19 positive over the next 12 weeks will double if case numbers climb by even just 10 per cent per week. That 10 per cent number would actually require the rate of the virus’s spread has slowed. Since the start of October, new case numbers have grown at an average rate exceeding 30 per cent.)

Click the + button in the top-left of the image below to enlarge

The figures underscore the danger of an unchecked virus’s tendency towards exponential growth and the need to reverse recent trends. Similarly to the dangers posed by increasing numbers, if the number of new case counts decreases by 10 per cent each week, the number of people who are diagnosed with COVID-19 by February will be cut in half.

But if new case counts don’t increase and just remain level, the odds are good that most people know someone who will acquire the virus over the coming weeks.

At current case rates, by Feb. 12, one in 24 residents of the Fraser South region (Delta, Surrey, White Rock and Langley) will have confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses – including those who have already been infected. The figures don’t account for any missed cases that don’t result in a positive diagnosis.

Elsewhere in the Lower Mainland, odds of infection by Feb. 12 would range from one in 46 in Fraser East to one in 80 in Richmond.

In the Okanagan, one in 157 people would have been diagnosed; in Northern B.C. one in 217 people would have had confirmed cases, and on Vancouver Island, there would be about one case for every 600 people.

Across B.C., about one in 80 people will test positive for the virus over the next 12 weeks if case counts stop rising.

Do you have something to add to this story, or something else we should report on? Email:
tolsen@abbynews.com


@ty_olsen
Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Just Posted

The City of Surrey partnered with the Work Zone Safety Alliance last year to remind drivers to slow down in construction zones. (File photo)
White Rock, Surrey motorists asked to slow down in ‘cone zones’

Provincewide campaign encouraging residents to be mindful of construction workers

Fraser Valley Heritage Rail Society volunteers stand on the train platform in Cloverdale in 2020. A new exhibit about FVHRS and Surrey’s train history opens at the Museum of Surrey June 2. (Photo: Malin Jordan)
New exhibition on Surrey’s train history to open at Museum of Surrey

Separate two-day event welcomes kids June 25-26

A new DPD team began targeting gang-related activity on May 15, including checking on individuals who must abide by curfews and conditions. (Delta Police Department photo)
Delta police taking action to address gang conflict

Three-pronged strategy focused on interdiction, investigation and prevention

Semiahmoo First Nation archeology manager Don Welsh (left) sifts through shell midden at a Crescent Beach site in August 2019. (File photo)
Semiahmoo First Nation to repatriate 200 ancestors

B.C. grant funding return of remains from Simon Fraser University

File photo: Tom Zytaruk
Surrey cops investigate shooting overnight at Whalley home with long history of gunshots

Police received reports about shots fired at a house in the 10800-block of 139A Street at about 4:15 a.m. Sunday

An avalanche near Highway 1 in Glacier National Park. Avalanche Canada will benefit from a $10 million grant from the B.C. government. (Photo by Parks Canada)
Avalanche Canada receives $10-million grant from B.C. government

Long sought-after funds to bolster organization’s important work

Sicamous RCMP Sgt. Murray McNeil and Cpl. Wade Fisher present seven-year-old Cody Krabbendam of Ranchero with an award for bravery on July 22, 2020. (Contributed)
7-year old Shuswap boy receives medal of bravery for rescuing child at beach

Last summer Cody Krabbendam jumped into the lake to save another boy from drowning

B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix and provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry update the province’s COVID-19 vaccine program, May 10, 2021. (B.C. government)
B.C.’s COVID-19 infection rate stays below 500 a day over weekend

14 more deaths, down to 350 in hospital as of Monday

Royal Bay Secondary School’s rainbow crosswalk was vandalized shortly after being painted but by Monday, coincidentally the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia and Biphobia, the crosswalk had been cleaned up and students had surrounded it with chalk messages of support and celebration. (Zoe Ducklow/News Staff)
B.C. high’s school’s pride crosswalk restored following ‘hateful’ graffiti attack

Hate terms, racial slur, phallic images spray-painted at Greater Victoria high school

Terrance Mack would have celebrated his 34th birthday on May 13, 2021. Mack’s family has identified him as the victim of a homicide in an apartment on Third Avenue in Port Alberni sometime in April. (SUBMITTED PHOTO)
Family identifies Ucluelet man as victim of Vancouver Island homicide

Terrance Mack being remembered as ‘kind, gentle’ man

Vancouver Canucks’ Jake Virtanen (18) and Calgary Flames’ Josh Leivo, front right, vie for the puck as goalie Jacob Markstrom, back left, watches during the first period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, on Saturday, February 13, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
Vancouver Canucks forward Jake Virtanen sued over alleged sexual assault

Statement of claim says the woman, identified only by her initials, suffered physical and emotional damages

An avalanche near Highway 1 in Glacier National Park. Avalanche Canada will benefit from a $10 million grant from the B.C. government. (Photo by Parks Canada)
Avalanche Canada receives $10-million grant from B.C. government

Long sought-after funds to bolster organization’s important work

Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases reported to B.C. public health, seven-day rolling average in white, to May 12, 2021. (B.C. Centre for Disease Control)
B.C. preparing ‘Restart 2.0’ from COVID-19 as June approaches

Daily infections fall below 500 Friday, down to 387 in hospital

(Vancouver Police Department)
Vancouver police expect violence to escalate, ID 6 gangsters who pose ‘public safety risk’

VPD asking public to stay away from these six people, who they say may be targeted in shootings

Most Read