The federal byelection in Cloverdale-Langley City will be closely watched across the country – and also by politicians in the other five local ridings.
The vote, set for next Monday, Dec. 16, is to elect a replacement for former Liberal MP John Aldag. He resigned in May to seek a provincial seat for the NDP in Langley.
Three other byelections in recent months have been more closely scrutinized than usual. Two, in Montreal and Toronto, were in former Liberal ridings. The Bloc Québécois won the Montreal riding of Lasalle-Emard-Verdun and the Conservatives won Toronto-St. Paul’s. It was their first win of that particular seat since 1993.
The third was in Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona seat, which the NDP retained.
The poor showing of the Liberals in the two big eastern cities, which have mostly Liberal MPs, caused many people to speculate that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would resign. Thus far he has said he is staying on and is facing minimal pressure from Liberal MPs to resign.
If the Liberals lose for a third time in Cloverdale-Langley City, there will be more calls for him to quit.
Aldag won the new seat in the 2015 election by more than 5,000 votes, when Trudeaumania was running high. He lost in a close race in 2019 to Tamara Jansen of the Conservatives, who is running again in the byelection, but managed to go back to Ottawa in 2021, beating her by a similarly narrow margin.
Turnout will likely be quite low. Voter turnout in byelections is usually low, but this one comes just over a week before Christmas. In addition, the postal strike means that voters on the list are not getting any information and reminders from Elections Canada, or political parties, in the usual way.
Surrey and Delta have been strongly Liberal since 2015, when the party won five of the six local seats. Incumbent MPs Carla Qualtrough in Delta and Ken Hardie in Fleetwood-Port Kells have already indicated they are not running again.
South Surrey-White Rock has remained Conservative, and MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay is expected to run again in the next federal election. Liberal incumbents Sukh Dhaliwal in Surrey-Newton and Randeep Sarai in Surrey Centre have not made their intentions known.
It is quite possible, if national polling trends continue, that Surrey and Delta could end up mainly Conservative in the 2025 general election. It must be held by October of next year. Veteran MP Dhaliwal probably has the best chance of holding onto a Liberal seat, but he will have his work cut out for him.
The NDP, which has at times held various seats in Surrey, does not seem to be a serious challenger at the present. The party has picked up some limited support from former Liberal voters, but its polling results haven’t been strong in the past 18 months or so. Interestingly, the NDP held two of the Surrey seats before the 2015 election.
All of these factors should give some extra motivation to voters in Cloverdale-Langley City to turn out at the polls — if they have a few minutes to spare at this hectic time of year. The many signs that have cropped up during the campaign should at least provide awareness of the byelection.
Much of the rest of Canada is watching.
Frank Bucholtz writes twice monthly on political issues for Black Press Media publications.
